A bit of a short bent this week. Carson Block making 2 appearances – his editorial in the FT on the “Stonk Market” and if there is one thing you watch, make it this – his discussion of market structure with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors.
There is also a great interview with Stanley Druckenmiller on the current state of the markets “Buckle up.. this is about the wildest cocktail I have ever seen”. The Heisenberg report asks the question”Why do we often ignore, to our detriment, the more commonplace White Swan” in an article that summarizes the latest views of Harley Bassman.
Energy was also a bit of a theme – there is the FT’s big read on the impact of Carbon pricing, Dylan Grice on why Oil has legs and a Project Syndicate Blog on why Europe could/should seize the reigns to lead in ESG.
For the Credit Geeks – there is Reorg’s podcast on the recent ASDA deal’s covenants and KME. There is the Luckin Cofee short paper – a good insight into what goes into identifying a short as well as the effort professional short research. Then we have 3 pieces covering corporate zombies and Japanification, restructuring expectations and the impact of Covid 19 on UK corporates (have cash, but stresses emerging). Aswath Damodaran explains hurdle rates and there is the FT’s coverage of Silverlake’s “get out of jail free” exit of AMC.
On the personal development front there is McKinsey’s “Six problem solving mindsets for very uncertain times” which resonated strongly with us and the application of Akin’s laws for Space Craft design applied to investment Management. There is also the introductory video on Ergodicity from Ole Peter’s et al’s new Youtube Channel
Finally there is the FT’s piece on Automation “The Robots are coming!” and what it means for the workforce and why it needs to be managed in order to be a force of good.
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While you are here we wanted to flag the accredited bond course we have produced in association with Wise Alpha. If you want a gentle introduction into bonds and high yield then have a look here
Coffee Time Watch: "What this means is the distribution of downside is changing.. we're driving a car with no brakes uphill -at some point we will run out of uphill and find out the car has no brakes"— EuroHighYield (@EuroYield) February 12, 2021
Carson Block and Mike Green on Mkt Structurehttps://t.co/TZ46zwchF4
Coffee Time Read 2: From @muddywatersre— EuroHighYield (@EuroYield) February 11, 2021
"We must find a way to deleverage our economies and markets. We live in a time when governments seem to lack the will and competence to do hard things; but the results of delay are not pretty. Let’s choose wisely"https://t.co/ImPuIFlNRZ
Coffee Time Read: "Europe’s ESG Opportunity"— EuroHighYield (@EuroYield) February 12, 2021
"Assessing corporations’ non-financial performance can form part of a more assertive sovereignty that.. address .. urgent issues such as climate change, social problems, and shifting geopolitical alignments"https://t.co/2bDZDspaHM
Coffee Time Read: "The impact of Covid-19 on firms and what policy makers should do in response"— EuroHighYield (@EuroYield) February 10, 2021
The good news: cash holdings have risen & debt remains below pre-financial crisis peaks
Concerns: signs of cashflow stress, pent-up insolvencieshttps://t.co/TA1Pbd581j pic.twitter.com/1e9fobHq3i
Coffee Time Read:— EuroHighYield (@EuroYield) February 2, 2021
"Restructuring activity in 2021 is likely to continue along sector-specific lines, though more industries could move onto watchlists if consumer and client habits show long-term changes following COVID-19"https://t.co/ONgaHLBuPi pic.twitter.com/Bix8VlUG2b
Coffee time read 2: "The Fed, Zombies, & The Pathway To Japanification"— EuroHighYield (@EuroYield) February 2, 2021
"corporate balance sheets have become damaged to a level that will make it difficult to see significant investment growth above depreciation."https://t.co/ONLU9wioWH pic.twitter.com/NX9K4AlfjN